Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 22.040400 26.477907 31.376609 37.158170 43.766495 51.055236 59.672498
2025-03-16 14.353890 19.811277 26.494748 35.161866 45.973937 58.882120 75.310281
2025-03-23 11.271829 17.307410 25.296255 36.381780 51.073503 69.567162 94.256262
2025-03-30 8.675427 14.703337 23.264339 35.870766 53.462280 76.601698 108.716406
2025-04-06 7.428371 13.681765 23.095127 37.634131 58.759533 87.501926 128.579753
2025-04-13 5.472928 11.123792 20.224844 35.060680 57.602555 89.416511 136.330165
2025-04-20 4.618835 10.179404 19.636156 35.719069 61.010000 97.705645 153.095055
2025-04-27 3.984007 9.478414 19.307316 36.679454 64.848923 106.729555 171.242169
2025-05-04 3.502855 8.959123 19.189951 37.918914 69.136616 116.562863 190.931687
2025-05-11 3.029573 8.347552 18.805291 38.629170 72.574311 125.232794 209.228528
2025-05-18 2.522237 7.541159 17.930505 38.364391 74.349500 131.385599 223.962358
2025-05-25 2.076034 6.758621 16.973963 37.821811 75.566362 136.658605 237.502087
2025-06-01 1.707666 6.109875 16.276973 37.858211 78.079707 144.608938 256.339266
2025-06-08 1.249862 5.072422 14.580442 35.795100 76.787794 146.425735 265.860019
2025-06-15 1.086003 4.811366 14.556019 37.030207 81.492029 158.332663 291.899715
2025-06-22 0.858298 4.258916 13.737681 36.511727 82.878879 164.689865 309.196256
2025-06-29 0.773296 4.153934 13.995672 38.300240 88.733051 178.934771 339.935145
2025-07-06 0.537233 3.374248 12.350855 35.689993 85.848598 177.812883 345.094659
2025-07-13 0.453660 3.155634 12.167917 36.357845 89.466699 188.304435 370.130888
2025-07-20 0.390996 2.996257 12.120756 37.331972 93.756391 200.172578 397.912382
2025-07-27 0.343476 2.883737 12.190111 38.589063 98.699597 213.422202 428.500280
2025-08-03 0.291315 2.714792 12.050574 39.309371 102.552878 224.812658 456.220865
2025-08-10 0.230655 2.451090 11.546370 39.040850 104.267110 232.278234 477.297160